TRANSPORT
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CARS/TRUCKS/TRACTORS- Here lie major
questions about future capabilities regarding producing human
transport vehicles and machinery, even given a slowly declining
population. Note: all business ventures referenced below involve
government subsidy, because the government subsidizes all of the
major banks. CARS: all Soviet era manufacturing capability is
finished; an attempt is being made to modernize but buyers prefer
higher-quality foreign used cars from Europe and especially Japan.
Russia is relying on joint ventures with most of the big international
car manufacturers to bring in the majority of the capital and all of the
manufacturing technology required to serve future markets. This
doesn’t affect poor people, since the car-owning middle class is
expected to grow in the future, though no one knows how much (or
really, if at all). China is now the world’s largest car manufacturer
and of course could force their way into the Russian market if
desired. As mentioned earlier, there are many used cars from Japan
but this import program was stopped because, officially, Japanese
cars’ right-side steering wheel poses a safety risk---translation: the
government is trying to force people to buy domestically-
manufactured product. TRUCKS: Russia has been unable to meet
growing demand, through domestic manufacturing, for trucks and has
no manufacturing capacity for large trailers. So it is, like with cars,
importing used equipment from Europe, Asia, and also the United
States, while joint venturing with foreign firms for production to meet
future demand. Note: these imported big rigs are heavier than old
Soviet trucks and are thus having a very negative long term effect on
roads, the majority of which aren’t designed to carry such weights,
constantly. TRACTORS: Almost all heavy equipment is currently
imported from Europe, China, and the U.S.A., and this trend isn’t
expected to change. Historically, with imported equipment, the
pattern has to run-it-till-it-breaks and buy another, without
maintenance, but that attitude is slowly changing. BUSSES AND
TROLLEYS- All trolleys and some busses are manufactured
domestically, the latter being based on foreign designs (German) with
some busses continuing to be recycled from Europe (Germany,
mostly) and Korea. The farther from the population hub, the older the
product. (*KEY*) NONE of Russia’s cities were designed for the
major use of automobiles. The socialist intent was for the masses to
perpetually use public transport. Now, even with only a small
percentage of the population using cars, major gridlock is the norm
everywhere---and there is no possible solution in site, even in the
Capitals of Moscow and St. Petersberg. As might be guessed, this
same deficiency applies to intercity/interstate road facilities as well.
questions about future capabilities regarding producing human
transport vehicles and machinery, even given a slowly declining
population. Note: all business ventures referenced below involve
government subsidy, because the government subsidizes all of the
major banks. CARS: all Soviet era manufacturing capability is
finished; an attempt is being made to modernize but buyers prefer
higher-quality foreign used cars from Europe and especially Japan.
Russia is relying on joint ventures with most of the big international
car manufacturers to bring in the majority of the capital and all of the
manufacturing technology required to serve future markets. This
doesn’t affect poor people, since the car-owning middle class is
expected to grow in the future, though no one knows how much (or
really, if at all). China is now the world’s largest car manufacturer
and of course could force their way into the Russian market if
desired. As mentioned earlier, there are many used cars from Japan
but this import program was stopped because, officially, Japanese
cars’ right-side steering wheel poses a safety risk---translation: the
government is trying to force people to buy domestically-
manufactured product. TRUCKS: Russia has been unable to meet
growing demand, through domestic manufacturing, for trucks and has
no manufacturing capacity for large trailers. So it is, like with cars,
importing used equipment from Europe, Asia, and also the United
States, while joint venturing with foreign firms for production to meet
future demand. Note: these imported big rigs are heavier than old
Soviet trucks and are thus having a very negative long term effect on
roads, the majority of which aren’t designed to carry such weights,
constantly. TRACTORS: Almost all heavy equipment is currently
imported from Europe, China, and the U.S.A., and this trend isn’t
expected to change. Historically, with imported equipment, the
pattern has to run-it-till-it-breaks and buy another, without
maintenance, but that attitude is slowly changing. BUSSES AND
TROLLEYS- All trolleys and some busses are manufactured
domestically, the latter being based on foreign designs (German) with
some busses continuing to be recycled from Europe (Germany,
mostly) and Korea. The farther from the population hub, the older the
product. (*KEY*) NONE of Russia’s cities were designed for the
major use of automobiles. The socialist intent was for the masses to
perpetually use public transport. Now, even with only a small
percentage of the population using cars, major gridlock is the norm
everywhere---and there is no possible solution in site, even in the
Capitals of Moscow and St. Petersberg. As might be guessed, this
same deficiency applies to intercity/interstate road facilities as well.
TRAINS- Locomotives are aging but manufacturing needs will be
met inside of the country at any cost because of Defense requirements. The
same goes for most non-passenger rolling stock; over 80% of all freight traffic in
Russia is carried by rail. Passenger cars in use today were all made in East
Germany and most still work well despite their age. Future capacity when/if
required is planned to be met by Ukrainian-Russian joint venture. The main
questions revolve around rails and ballasting, the lack of maintenance of which
often causes greatly reduced speeds and reduced stability---major Defense
concerns along with ever-increasing Asian commercial traffic on the Trans-
Siberian. Note: The former Eastern European Bloc (less the former east
Germany) and Mongolia are stuck with this Soviet wide-gauge legacy, stripped
down further by Russian withdrawal post 1991. TRAMS-all manufactured
domestically. SPECIAL NOTE: Russia contracted with German firms to
construct its first high-speed line between Moscow and St. Petersberg while
contracting with Libya to provide a similar service at the same time.
PLANES- With the exception of the TU-154 (125 passengers) and
the IL-76 (heavy freighter only), and some Yaks, all Soviet-era aircraft have
generally been grounded for age and safety reasons. Like with trains, the
Former Eastern Bloc (excluding the former East Germany and Mongolia) plus
Iran and the Former Central Asian Autonomous Republics (primarily Kazakhstan
and Uzbekistan) are still using these aging vehicles with greater and greater
risk, as evidenced by the Polish Government’s recent loss of life near Smolensk.
Russia has no manufacturing capacity for low-passenger (30-50 passenger)
turbo-props and so these must be imported; few are necessary, mainly in the
numerous sparsely populated regions of Siberia. Russia has imported mainly
used Boeing and Airbus planes for the 150-250 passenger categories, but these
serve very few airports, because (*KEY*) 99% of the latter are only equipped
with Soviet air traffic and control systems---and these can’t be adapted to
Western planes. The cost of retrofitting airports to comply with western systems
is beyond enormous. So, the key to Russia’s domestic/short-haul international
aviation future is the new Sukhoi 100 (passenger), which is just coming into
production. Designed under a joint venture license with and with the majority
financing of 2 foreign firms, it will eventually replace all Soviet-era planes and
foreign 737’s/A 320’s as the population, the economy, and thus demand keep
declining. It was designed from the beginning to compete internationally with
the Brazilian Embraer and the Canadian Bomardier; it will be certified for short
international routes to Europe. Since it would be very hard to justify the cost of
getting a brand new 100+ passenger aircraft internationally certified beyond
Europe without large orders extant, its range of sales will end there, especially
considering concerns about long-term maintenance and parts availability---and
China’s projected joint ventures with Airbus. So eventually, as with most foreign
investment situations, the foreign joint venture partners will be eliminated and
the Sukhoi 100 will be made by and for Russia, and the old airport guidance
systems will be spared. The recent air crash in Yaroslavl will accelerate this
process, under the guise of a national emergency. But for now, the domestic
manufacturing emphasis is on defense: fighter jets, primarily. HELICOPTERS:
low weight (6 or fewer passengers) are imported. Heavy-weight can be
manufactured domestically (Defense requirement) but importing is done as well.
BOATS- Practically everything is expected to be imported for civilian
use, including some small vessels for Defense needs. This is mainly because
there is no correlation between the needs of the population and the Navy. The
defense emphasis is on providing a fleet of submarines which carry multiple-
head inter-continental ballistic missiles which, along with existing ground-
based nuclear capability, will alone command the world to respect Russia as a
super-power.
met inside of the country at any cost because of Defense requirements. The
same goes for most non-passenger rolling stock; over 80% of all freight traffic in
Russia is carried by rail. Passenger cars in use today were all made in East
Germany and most still work well despite their age. Future capacity when/if
required is planned to be met by Ukrainian-Russian joint venture. The main
questions revolve around rails and ballasting, the lack of maintenance of which
often causes greatly reduced speeds and reduced stability---major Defense
concerns along with ever-increasing Asian commercial traffic on the Trans-
Siberian. Note: The former Eastern European Bloc (less the former east
Germany) and Mongolia are stuck with this Soviet wide-gauge legacy, stripped
down further by Russian withdrawal post 1991. TRAMS-all manufactured
domestically. SPECIAL NOTE: Russia contracted with German firms to
construct its first high-speed line between Moscow and St. Petersberg while
contracting with Libya to provide a similar service at the same time.
PLANES- With the exception of the TU-154 (125 passengers) and
the IL-76 (heavy freighter only), and some Yaks, all Soviet-era aircraft have
generally been grounded for age and safety reasons. Like with trains, the
Former Eastern Bloc (excluding the former East Germany and Mongolia) plus
Iran and the Former Central Asian Autonomous Republics (primarily Kazakhstan
and Uzbekistan) are still using these aging vehicles with greater and greater
risk, as evidenced by the Polish Government’s recent loss of life near Smolensk.
Russia has no manufacturing capacity for low-passenger (30-50 passenger)
turbo-props and so these must be imported; few are necessary, mainly in the
numerous sparsely populated regions of Siberia. Russia has imported mainly
used Boeing and Airbus planes for the 150-250 passenger categories, but these
serve very few airports, because (*KEY*) 99% of the latter are only equipped
with Soviet air traffic and control systems---and these can’t be adapted to
Western planes. The cost of retrofitting airports to comply with western systems
is beyond enormous. So, the key to Russia’s domestic/short-haul international
aviation future is the new Sukhoi 100 (passenger), which is just coming into
production. Designed under a joint venture license with and with the majority
financing of 2 foreign firms, it will eventually replace all Soviet-era planes and
foreign 737’s/A 320’s as the population, the economy, and thus demand keep
declining. It was designed from the beginning to compete internationally with
the Brazilian Embraer and the Canadian Bomardier; it will be certified for short
international routes to Europe. Since it would be very hard to justify the cost of
getting a brand new 100+ passenger aircraft internationally certified beyond
Europe without large orders extant, its range of sales will end there, especially
considering concerns about long-term maintenance and parts availability---and
China’s projected joint ventures with Airbus. So eventually, as with most foreign
investment situations, the foreign joint venture partners will be eliminated and
the Sukhoi 100 will be made by and for Russia, and the old airport guidance
systems will be spared. The recent air crash in Yaroslavl will accelerate this
process, under the guise of a national emergency. But for now, the domestic
manufacturing emphasis is on defense: fighter jets, primarily. HELICOPTERS:
low weight (6 or fewer passengers) are imported. Heavy-weight can be
manufactured domestically (Defense requirement) but importing is done as well.
BOATS- Practically everything is expected to be imported for civilian
use, including some small vessels for Defense needs. This is mainly because
there is no correlation between the needs of the population and the Navy. The
defense emphasis is on providing a fleet of submarines which carry multiple-
head inter-continental ballistic missiles which, along with existing ground-
based nuclear capability, will alone command the world to respect Russia as a
super-power.
